Zambia's future:Old dog new tricks vs old tricks young dog?

Against the order of  age old traditional values, a political battle is already raging to succeed the  late Mwanawasa before his body is even  laid to rest. Caught at the heart of the battle is his grieving widow who had to part with tradition and raised her voice to state her late husband's preferred successor - finance Minister Ng'andu Magande.

Yet

" (MMD) in six provinces out of all the nine have endorsed Acting President Rupiah Banda as candidate for the forth-coming presidential by-election, MMD co-founder member Mbita Chitala have told Zambia News and Information Services.

    Provincial executive committees in Luapula, Northern, North Western and Copperbelt have unanymously endorsed the candidature of Banda in the November polls, he said." (Xinhua)

If Rupiah Banda is the old dog, in this battle for succession, figutively speaking, he has certainly learnt a few new tricks otherwise how did he win the party people and keep the master's confidence at the same time?

While Mrs. Mwanawasa may not have taken to Rupiah Banda as a potential successor,  a significant number of party powers  seem to have fallen for the old dog charm, unbridled generosity. While Magande is urging financial discipline, Banda like grandpa is offering higher wages and increasing allowances for  political leaders across the board.

"The MMD in Lusaka has endorsed the candidature of Vice President Rupiah Banda as the presidential candidate in the forthcoming presidential by-election with more joining in the calls.

MMD Lusaka Province secretary, Cleophas Chimembe said in a letter to the party’s national secretary Katele Kalumba that the provincial executive committee supported the application of Mr Banda as the most preferred candidate."

“We further state with conviction that Mr Banda is the right candidate for the job and we acknowledge the respect and confidence the late beloved President Mwanawasa had in him by appointing him to the office of vice president,” he said. (Times)

Magande is a relatively new political player and  may have kept his master's voice and promise to fight corruption and waste but a party structure and public that are eager to satisfy immediate needs may not be attuned or pay attention to such noble  yet causes  that take a long time to bear benefits for all.

Magande, graduated from UNZA in 1970 with a degree in economics and mathematics, then added a masters in Agricultural economics from Makelele university. He  has tremendous international experience,  working for the World bank, ADB and ACP-EU. He has clearly used his immense economic and international  experience to assuage Zambia's economic troubles, so why does he seem to be losing the battle even with the explicit support of Mwanawasa's widow?

Is old age and experience a greater charm than relative youth, excellent academic and professional credentials?

As in the US Presidential race, where Barack Obama faces a similar challenge from an old and experienced Mc Cain, old politicians apparently are more adept than old dogs in learning quickly and employing new tricks. They have both  created just  a little excitement amongst  their political  base to detract from the real issues of the campaign. While Rupiah Banda used money and more money to induce support, Mc Cain enlisted a beautiful woman as a running mate.

It has been said politics is a game of dirty tricks, new and old, I wait to see how this battle rolls out.

Rupiah Banda:unsavory consequence of Machiavellian Politics?

In his influencial book The Prince 16th century political thinker Niccolò Machiavelli describes the arts by which a Prince (a ruler) can retain control of his realm. Among other bold means of maintaining power, the prince need only carefully maintain the institutions that the people are used to, preserve the the status quo, as more appealing than change; a new prince will have a much more difficult task since he must stabilize his new found power and build a structure that will endure. The execution of this task requires the Prince to be publicly above reproach but may privately require him to do unsavory things, in order to achieve his goals.
Machiavelli also notes that it is wise for a prince not to ally with a stronger force unless compelled to do so.

This kind of political strategy has increasingly gained prominence in modern day politics. In Zambia's  recent political history, former Presidents have sought to carefully manage and retain institutions in a form that furthers rather than challenge their power. There has been untoward resistance to the reform of the institutions of government like parliament, electoral council and the judiciary.
Despite several constitutional reviews including the on-going NCC, there is still opposition to the reduction of executive authority, specifically, attempts to mitigate the power to appoint key members of the judiciary, the electoral council, government boards even government owned companies.
Perhaps more Machiavellian has been nature of appointments to the office of Vice President, in the recent past, we have had Nevers Mumba (2003/4), Lupando Mwape(2004/6) and present Rupiah Banda. All of whom had to be nominated to parliament and held no viable party position in the MMD. Essentially, they are outsiders brought in so close, to the principal power- the President, so that he has always remained more powerful, more appealing, less transient. In making such appointments, he may have employed the more important virtue of Machiavelli - having the wisdom to discern what ventures will come with the most reward and then pursuing it courageously.

In the US presidential race John McCain was asked what he thought the most important job of the Vice President is - " it is to inquire daily on the President's health" he said and " In my case , this is going to be very important". McCain is expected to appoint a more able running mate.

Sadly, it is the cruel hand of ill health that has brought Zambia, to the current political and constitutional limbo. In our case, Ruphiah Banda is hardly prepared nor appropriately positioned within the MMD, to continue the transcendent role of governing and managing the state.

Mwanawasa 'is not dead'

A Zambian minister has accused South African media of "malice" after they issued reports - later retracted - that Zambia's president had died.
Information Minister Mike Mulongoti said the reports had caused "panic and damage" for Zambians.
President Levy Mwanawasa, 59, is in intensive care at a hospital in Paris after suffering a stroke at an African Union summit in Egypt last weekend.
Vice-President Rupiah Banda said Mr Mwanawasa's condition was stable.......

South Africa's leader has retracted comments in which he said that Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, 59, had died.
President Thabo Mbeki asked for a minute's silence on Thursday but his office later said reports of Mr Mwanawasa's death were "not true".
Zambia's Vice-President Rupiah Banda said Mr Mwanawasa had had a "satisfactory night" in Paris.
He was flown there from Egypt, where he had suffered a stroke on Sunday ahead of an African Union summit.
South African radio earlier quoted a spokesman who said he was from Zambia's High Commission as saying Mr Mwanawasa had died. ( BBC)

Alas Mwanawasa is gone.....

Zambian President Mwanawasa has died -report
Thu 3 Jul 2008, 8:12 GM
JOHANNESBURG, July 3 (Reuters) - Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa died in a Paris hospital on Thursday after suffering a stroke earlier this week, South Africa's Talk Radio 702 reported.
The radio quoted a Zambian High Commission spokesman as saying that Mwanawasa died earlier on Thursday morning. Mwanawasa was taken to hospital in Egypt just before an African Union summit on Monday and Tuesday and then transferred to Paris...

This makes for very sad reading, indeed, we pray for peace and a graceful mourning of our most eminent Leader.

My condolences to the first lady and the family.

God bless our beloved nation.

Political posturing: The dynamics of post Mwanawasa politics.

For the last hour my blackberry is buzzing with (sms) unconfirmed information from Zambians in the US, that President Mwanawasa has died in Paris, though no news outlet has posted this information.

Bloomberg has this....

"July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa was flown to France last night for specialist treatment after suffering a mild stroke in Egypt on June 29, Vice-President Rupiah Banda said.
Mwanawasa was moved to a Paris hospital where he will undergo ``further medical treatment,'' Banda said in a statement in the Zambian capital, Lusaka, late yesterday."


My prayers are for our beloved Mwanawasa to recover, as grim as the prognosis of suffering two strokes, any other outcome is hard to come to grips with and indeed casts doubt on the future of our nation and the constitutional, political, economic and structural progression Zambia has made under Mwanawasa.

Vice President Rupiah Banda hardly strikes me as a reformer, he has certainly had his time from the UNIP era to a period of retirement. He lacks the necessary grip on contemporary and future challenges Zambia faces, in the wake of recent government and economic restructuring.

Would he provide the leadership Zambia needs to rein in the mines in order to bring Zambians benefits through taxation and fair employment opportunities?

Would he follow through with government restucturing, to make service delivery to average Zambians more responsive and effective?

Would he deliver the constitution, we have being crying out for?

On the opposition side, Michael Sata is equally ill equiped for our time in both health and idealogy.

UPND's Hakainde Hichilema may have youth and progressive ideas but his party lacks the grassroot framework and support to deliver him the presidency.

It maybe to the outcome of the battle between the old and the young Turks in the MMD to carry the mantle.

As Cho the Zambian economist/seer has outlined here the levers of our current constitution are clear.

Within MMD, Prof Clive Chirwa and Dr. Nevers Mumba may have to prove between them who has the grip and proximity to the MMD party machinery.

For this moment however, my duty as every Zambian is to pray for our President Mwanawasa and our first lady Maureen and the family that is our beloved nation.

Came the man, came the moment!

ST. PAUL—In a moment bearing history's weight and the future's promise, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois claimed the Democratic nomination for president Tuesday night to cap a grueling but ultimately successful quest to be the first African-American candidate to lead a major party's bid for the White House.The career trajectory of the man who only four years ago was serving in the state legislature in Springfield has been as rapid as any in American politics, featuring a blend of celebrity, youthful appeal and gift for rhetoric that could attract crowds by the tens of thousands across the nation.His rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, kept her campaign alive, telling supporters in New York that she would "be making no decisions" on Tuesday and pledging to meet with allies and party leaders to figure out what to do next. She hinted at accommodation but sounded notes of defiance, and her supporters sent signals that she would like to run for vice president with Obama. (Chicago tribune)

Desperate Hillary cites Zim elections in Dem primary.

Hillary Clinton is pushing harder and harder to convince the DNC to count the votes held in Florida in Michigan. And with reports suggesting that she is just going through the motions of the election, Clinton has apparently decided to ratchet up the rhetoric. During a rally in Florida yesterday, she not only compared the current situation to the 2000 election, she also referenced rigged elections in Zimbabwe:

Desperate to get attention for her cause to seat Florida and Michigan delegates, Hillary Clinton compared the plight of Zimbabweans in their recent fraudulent election to the uncounted votes of Michigan and Florida voters saying it is wrong when "people go through the motions of an election only to have them discarded and disregarded."

"We're seeing that right now in Zimbabwe," Clinton explained. "Tragically, an election was held, the president lost, they refused to abide by the will of the people," Clinton told the crowd of senior citizens at a retirement community in south Florida. (AP)


Though the political system in the US bears the wholemark of a fully developed democratic structure, Hillary has served as a reminder that politics are the same everywhere, that at the core is a desperate quest for power sometimes regardless of the price.
Social harmony and relationships that have developed across class and race over many years are as much at risk in US as in Zimbabwe.

Indeed, Kashikulu can see at little of Mugabe's traits in Hillary Clinton-

i) that failure to percieve a loss of resonance with the majority of voters.

ii) that desperate tenacity to potray self as the only viable candidate.

iii) that annoying chick to paint opponents as weak, as traitors to common values.

And sadly here, as in Zimbabwe, the average citizen alone will bear the long term consequences of the strife and resentment churned out by an individual politician's quest for power at any cost.